2026 · 12 rounds to go

Season outlook

Championship win probabilities from a transparent model: current points plus expected points still on the table, with leads hardening as the season closes. Updated after each round.

Simple points-and-form model · not a per-session forecast

Drivers’ title

Andrea Kimi Antonelli14%
Lewis Hamilton10%
George Russell9%
Charles Leclerc7%
Lando Norris6%
Oscar Piastri5%
Max Verstappen5%
Isack Hadjar4%

Constructors’ title

Mercedes41%
Ferrari22%
McLaren11%
Red Bull7%
Alpine F1 Team3%
RB F1 Team3%
Haas F1 Team2%
Williams2%