PolePredictbeta

Round 6 · 2026 · Predictions

Monaco Grand Prix

Published and locked before each session, then scored against the official result. Below, every session the model has called.

7 Jun 2026Backtest — generated after the factCircuit & schedule →

Race

BacktestBaseline model
Published · not yet lockedv1
Winner
Hit
Podium
50%
Grid corr.
57.8%
H2H
45%

Andrea Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes) is the pick for the Grand Prix on current form and championship standing, with RUS and LEC the closest challengers. Conditions look largely settled.

Win probability

coherent distribution · sums to 100%
  • ANT76.3%
  • RUS9.7%
  • LEC5.4%
  • HAM5.3%
  • VER0.8%
  • NOR0.7%

Podium call

P1
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Mercedes
90%
conf.

Andrea Kimi Antonelli lands win for the Grand Prix on an average finish of 1.2 across recent rounds and 131 championship points. The Mercedes package suits this circuit's demands, and the head-to-head form points the same way. Chief risk is a poor start or an ill-timed safety car.

P2
George Russell
Mercedes
86%
conf.

George Russell lands the runner-up spot for the Grand Prix on an average finish of 6 across recent rounds and 88 championship points. The Mercedes package suits this circuit's demands, and the head-to-head form points the same way. Chief risk is a poor start or an ill-timed safety car.

P3
Charles Leclerc
Ferrari
82%
conf.

Charles Leclerc lands the final podium step for the Grand Prix on an average finish of 4.4 across recent rounds and 75 championship points. The Ferrari package suits this circuit's demands, and the head-to-head form points the same way. Chief risk is a poor start or an ill-timed safety car.

Predicted order

  • 1Andrea Kimi AntonelliMercedes
  • 2George RussellMercedes
  • 3Charles LeclercFerrari
  • 4Lewis HamiltonFerrari
  • 5Max VerstappenRed Bull
  • 6Lando NorrisMcLaren
  • 7Oscar PiastriMcLaren
  • 8Pierre GaslyAlpine F1 Team
  • 9Oliver BearmanHaas F1 Team
  • 10Franco ColapintoAlpine F1 Team

Predicted weather

Condition
Dry
Rain
15%
Air
27.5°C
Track
36.5°C
Wind
3.8 km/h

Quick calls

  • Winning margin: 5.7s
  • Classified finishers: 17
  • Fastest lap: RUS
  • Winning constructor: Mercedes

What to watch

  • Can ANT convert front-running pace into the win, or will RUS apply real pressure?
  • The midfield fight around PIA–COL should decide the final points places.
  • Tyre degradation and pit-window timing will shape the closing laps.

Upset watch

GAS: A clean start and an offset strategy could vault Pierre Gasly well beyond the grid's expectations — the raw pace is closer than the order suggests.

The forecast — props

  • Does the pole/front-runner ANT lead into turn 1?YES63%
  • Will the winner also set the fastest lap?NO32%
  • Does a driver outside the top 3 on merit reach the podium?NO31%
  • Will the championship gap at the top shrink after this session?NO48%
  • At least one safety car or VSC?YES68%
  • A mechanical DNF from the top 10?NO39%
  • A lead change in the final 10 laps?YES52%
  • A radio message spicy enough to trend online?funYES73%
  • At least one gravel excursion caught on the broadcast?funYES65%
  • A crowd shot of a celebrity in the paddock?funNO49%

Teammate battles

  • RUSANT0%

    ANT has the stronger recent race-pace and tyre profile of the two.

  • LECHAM50%

    LEC has the stronger recent race-pace and tyre profile of the two.

  • NORPIA55%

    NOR has the stronger recent race-pace and tyre profile of the two.

  • VERHAD99%

    VER has the stronger recent race-pace and tyre profile of the two.

  • BEAOCO70%

    BEA has the stronger recent race-pace and tyre profile of the two.

  • LINLAW28%

    LAW has the stronger recent race-pace and tyre profile of the two.

  • BORHUL51%

    BOR has the stronger recent race-pace and tyre profile of the two.

  • GASCOL58%

    GAS has the stronger recent race-pace and tyre profile of the two.

  • ALBSAI21%

    SAI has the stronger recent race-pace and tyre profile of the two.

  • PERBOT56%

    PER has the stronger recent race-pace and tyre profile of the two.

  • STRALO52%

    STR has the stronger recent race-pace and tyre profile of the two.

Constructor matrix

TeamTop 3Top 6Points2 fin.
Mercedes
Ferrari
Red Bull·
McLaren·
Alpine F1 Team··
Haas F1 Team··
RB F1 Team···
Williams···
Audi···
Cadillac F1 Team···
Aston Martin···

input context SHA-256: 53a06ecee2e096bfcf7c6853… · model: offline-heuristic-v1

Beat the AI

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Picks are closed — this session has started. Results and the leaderboard land after the flag.

AI’s podium call: ANT · RUS · LEC

Predictions are generated by an AI model for information and entertainment only — not betting advice. Backtest sets were generated after the fact from data available before the session, and are never mixed into live accuracy.