Round 11 · 2026 · Predictions
Published and locked before each session, then scored against the official result. Below, every session the model has called.
Hungary is a low-speed, high-downforce circuit that favours precision and Mercedes typically excels here. ANT leads the championship and showed strong qualifying pace (Q1 first in round 10), while HAM has been the season's most consistent points-scorer and recent form is formidable. Dry, calm conditions with 28°C air temperature will allow top teams to extract maximum grip; Mercedes and Ferrari are expected to dominate the front row.
Championship leader with exceptional recent qualifying form (Q1 first at R10). Mercedes has historically been strong at Hungary's technical layout, and ANT's consistency and precision suit this circuit perfectly. Dry conditions play to the team's strengths.
Most consistent performer this season (3.0 average finish) with flawless recent form. Ferrari upgrade has elevated him further, and his racecraft at Hungary—a circuit rewarding experience—is unmatched. Likely to pressure ANT across the session.
Strong recent race form (P2 and P1 in last two rounds) gives him qualifying momentum. Ferrari's balance suits Hungary's corners; however, recent DNFs (R7, R6) introduce slight caution despite his pace.
VER: VER could surprise with a strong qualifying lap if Red Bull's setup gains traction in the high-downforce environment; recent R10 P2 in qualifying suggests the car is recovering, though overall R9 DNF and inconsistency keep expectations tempered at 4% win probability.
ANT's recent Q1 first and championship lead edge out RUS, whose inconsistent qualifying (Q4 last event, Q1 several rounds ago) suggests lost precision in one-lap setup.
HAM's superior season consistency (3.0 avg finish vs 8.6) and recent Ferrari form give him edge; LEC's recent DNFs signal setup or tire management gaps in qualifying.
PIA has been McLaren's more consistent qualifier and race finisher (6.0 vs 8.0 avg); NOR's recent P7 finish suggests qualifying struggles relative to his teammate.
HAD's recent strong form (P6 R10) and 5.4 average finish edge VER, whose R9 DNF and inconsistent R10 Q2 (10th) signal car/setup challenges at this narrow circuit.
Both are struggling, but BEA's slightly better recent finishes (P14 R10 vs P17 R10) and more recent Q16 vs Q18 suggest marginally better one-lap precision.
LAW's superior recent race finishes (P6, P8 vs P7, P9) and higher championship points indicate slightly better pace; LIN's Q8 R10 vs LAW Q11 suggests marginal edge to LAW.
BOR's consistency (9.8 avg finish vs 16.0) and recent Q9 R10 outpace HUL's Q14 R10; BOR's form trajectory over the last three rounds shows sharper precision.
GAS's recent Q12 finishes and 8.8 average beat COL's Q13+ and 11.6 average; experience at Hungary and Alpine's setup knowledge favour GAS in one-lap trim.
Both are underperforming, but SAI's recent Q15 R10 and worse DNF rate (4 vs 3) lag ALB's Q17 R10; minimal gap, slight edge to ALB due to recent momentum.
Both Cadillac drivers struggle; PER's recent R10 DNF and Q20 vs BOT's Q19 suggest near parity, with BOT marginally ahead on recent grid position.
Both Aston Martins are in crisis (5 and 4 DNFs respectively); STR's Q22 R10 and ALO's Q21 R10 suggest STR is slightly further behind, with ALO's single R6 finish indicating marginal edge.
| Team | Top 3 | Top 6 | Points | 2 fin. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercedes | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | · |
| Ferrari | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | · |
| McLaren | · | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Red Bull | · | · | ✓ | · |
| RB F1 Team | · | · | · | · |
| Alpine F1 Team | · | · | · | · |
| Haas F1 Team | · | · | · | · |
| Audi | · | · | · | · |
| Williams | · | · | · | · |
| Aston Martin | · | · | · | · |
| Cadillac F1 Team | · | · | · | · |
input context SHA-256: f65772afa1b9be0bcc9c12c8… · model: claude-haiku-4-5
Hungary's tight, high-downforce circuit with 14 corners favours precision and tyre management over raw speed—a setup that typically suits Mercedes. ANT leads the championship by 45 points and demonstrated pole-to-victory form at round 10, while HAM's consistency (avg finish 3.0) and recent podiums (4th, 3rd, 5th, 1st, 2nd) mark him as the session's most reliable frontrunner. Hot, dry conditions (33°C air, 3% rain) will see tyre degradation play a critical role; LEC's recent pace (round 10 pole, round 9 win) challenges Ferrari's competitiveness here, but his higher DNF rate (2 in 5) introduces volatility. NOR and PIA anchor McLaren's attack, while VER's inconsistency (10.2 avg finish, 2 DNFs in 5 events) and RED's erratic form suggest a mid-grid threat rather than a championship threat at this circuit.
ANT's championship lead (204 pts) reflects dominance; round 10 pole-to-1st and round 8 pole-to-1st show mastery of high-downforce tracks. Mercedes' setup suits Hungary's 14 corners. Hot track will stress tyres, but ANT's recent consistency (avg 7.2 finish) and qualifying prowess edge him narrowly ahead of HAM for the win, though reliability concerns (1 DNF in 5) temper full confidence.
HAM's form is exceptional: avg finish 3.0, zero DNFs in 5 rounds, and 4 podiums (1st, 3rd, 2nd, 4th) including this season's Hungary-adjacent performance. Ferrari's recent pace is undeniable, but HAM's tactical racecraft and tyre management favour the long 70-lap grind. Direct teammate comparison favours HAM's consistency over LEC's volatility.
LEC's pace peaks at the front (round 10 pole, round 9 1st) but stability is a concern: 2 DNFs in 5 rounds (rounds 7, 6) and avg finish 8.6. Round 10 2nd shows residual speed, yet his qualifying strength masks race-day inconsistency. Hungary's low-speed corners and 70-lap attrition favour the steady driver; LEC's upside is offset by DNF risk.
VER: VER has struggled with 10.2 avg finish and 2 DNFs in 5 rounds; if RED's setup finds unexpected pace advantage on Hungary's tight layout and VER avoids the DNF lottery, a top-3 finish would represent a sharp reversal of form.
ANT's form (7.2 avg, 2 poles, 2 wins in last 5) and championship dominance outpace RUS's recent struggles (7.8 avg, 1 DNF). RUS can challenge with late-race tactics, but ANT's consistency favours the leader.
LEC's pole-and-win capability (rounds 9, 10 pace) on high-downforce tracks is offset by DNF volatility (2 in 5); HAM's zero DNFs and consistent podiums (avg 3.0) edge the h2h balance despite LEC's raw pace advantage.
NOR's pace (round 10: 7th, round 9: 4th) slightly edges PIA (round 10: 5th, round 9: 11th) on Hungary's mechanical circuit, though PIA's consistency (6.0 avg) remains strong; tight teammate battle expected.
VER's erratic form (10.2 avg, 2 DNFs in 5) contrasts sharply with HAD's steady output (5.4 avg, only 1 DNF), making HAD the likely points-scorer, though VER's ceiling remains higher on a good day.
BEA's 15.4 avg finish and 3 DNFs in 5 rounds slightly edge OCO's 13.6 avg and 2 DNFs; both struggle at the back, but BEA's recent laps show marginal competitiveness.
LIN's 8.4 avg and LAW's 8.2 avg are nearly identical; LAW's round 10 12th and round 9 6th show higher upside potential, marginally favouring LAW in the h2h.
BOR's 9.8 avg finish and consistency (round 10: 8th, round 9: 8th) outpace HUL's 16.0 avg and higher DNF rate (3 in 5); BOR favoured for solid midfield outcome.
GAS's recent form (round 10: 11th, round 9: 10th) and 8.8 avg outpace COL's 11.6 avg and variable finishes; GAS's Alpine machinery and consistency favour the h2h.
Both Williams drivers struggle (ALB 15.8 avg, SAI 16.2 avg) with high DNF rates; SAI's 4 DNFs in 5 vs ALB's 3 edges ALB slightly, but neither is reliable for points.
PER (17.0 avg, 3 DNFs) and BOT (19.6 avg, 4 DNFs) are both unreliable; PER's marginally better average and round 9 finish (14th) offer a slight edge over BOT's 16.0 worst-case scenario.
STR's 19.6 avg with 5 DNFs in 5 rounds is catastrophic; ALO's 16.8 avg and 4 DNFs provide marginally better reliability, but both are non-competitive and unreliable.
| Team | Top 3 | Top 6 | Points | 2 fin. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercedes | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Ferrari | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | · |
| McLaren | · | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Red Bull | · | ✓ | · | · |
| RB F1 Team | · | · | · | · |
| Alpine F1 Team | · | · | · | · |
| Audi | · | · | · | · |
| Haas F1 Team | · | · | · | · |
| Williams | · | · | · | · |
| Aston Martin | · | · | · | · |
| Cadillac F1 Team | · | · | · | · |
input context SHA-256: 63bf6eb0d7861d83ee28533a… · model: claude-haiku-4-5
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Predictions are generated by an AI model for information and entertainment only — not betting advice.